pip install pgmpy

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from pgmpy.models import BayesianModel
from pgmpy.estimators import BayesianEstimator
from pgmpy.inference import VariableElimination

def macro_research(crude_oil_data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
    """
    Perform macro research on crude oil data using probabilistic graphical models.

    Args:
    - crude_oil_data (pd.DataFrame): DataFrame containing crude oil data.

    Returns:
    - pd.DataFrame: DataFrame with the results of the macro research.
    """
    # Indicator identification
    indicators = ['Brent Crude Price', 'WTI Crude Price', 'OPEC Production', 'Non-OPEC Production']
    
    # Dataset retrieval
    dataset = crude_oil_data[indicators]
    
    # Data cleaning process
    dataset_cleaned = dataset.dropna()
    
    # Create a Bayesian model
    model = BayesianModel([('Brent Crude Price', 'OPEC Production'),
                           ('WTI Crude Price', 'OPEC Production'),
                           ('OPEC Production', 'Non-OPEC Production')])
    
    # Estimate the parameters of the model using Bayesian estimator
    estimator = BayesianEstimator(model, dataset_cleaned)
    model.fit(dataset_cleaned, estimator=estimator)
    
    # Perform inference using Variable Elimination
    inference = VariableElimination(model)
    
    # Query the model to get the results of the macro research
    query = inference.query(variables=['Brent Crude Price', 'WTI Crude Price'],
                            evidence={'OPEC Production': 100, 'Non-OPEC Production': 90})
    
    return query

if __name__ == "__main__":
    # Example usage
    crude_oil_data = pd.read_csv('crude_oil_data.csv')
    result = macro_research(crude_oil_data)
    print(result) 

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About Python

Python is a very popular general-purpose programming language which was created by Guido van Rossum, and released in 1991. It is very popular for web development and you can build almost anything like mobile apps, web apps, tools, data analytics, machine learning etc. It is designed to be simple and easy like english language. It's is highly productive and efficient making it a very popular language.

Tutorial & Syntax help

Loops

1. If-Else:

When ever you want to perform a set of operations based on a condition IF-ELSE is used.

if conditional-expression
    #code
elif conditional-expression
    #code
else:
    #code

Note:

Indentation is very important in Python, make sure the indentation is followed correctly

2. For:

For loop is used to iterate over arrays(list, tuple, set, dictionary) or strings.

Example:

mylist=("Iphone","Pixel","Samsung")
for i in mylist:
    print(i)

3. While:

While is also used to iterate a set of statements based on a condition. Usually while is preferred when number of iterations are not known in advance.

while condition  
    #code 

Collections

There are four types of collections in Python.

1. List:

List is a collection which is ordered and can be changed. Lists are specified in square brackets.

Example:

mylist=["iPhone","Pixel","Samsung"]
print(mylist)

2. Tuple:

Tuple is a collection which is ordered and can not be changed. Tuples are specified in round brackets.

Example:

myTuple=("iPhone","Pixel","Samsung")
print(myTuple)

Below throws an error if you assign another value to tuple again.

myTuple=("iPhone","Pixel","Samsung")
print(myTuple)
myTuple[1]="onePlus"
print(myTuple)

3. Set:

Set is a collection which is unordered and unindexed. Sets are specified in curly brackets.

Example:

myset = {"iPhone","Pixel","Samsung"}
print(myset)

4. Dictionary:

Dictionary is a collection of key value pairs which is unordered, can be changed, and indexed. They are written in curly brackets with key - value pairs.

Example:

mydict = {
    "brand" :"iPhone",
    "model": "iPhone 11"
}
print(mydict)

Supported Libraries

Following are the libraries supported by OneCompiler's Python compiler

NameDescription
NumPyNumPy python library helps users to work on arrays with ease
SciPySciPy is a scientific computation library which depends on NumPy for convenient and fast N-dimensional array manipulation
SKLearn/Scikit-learnScikit-learn or Scikit-learn is the most useful library for machine learning in Python
PandasPandas is the most efficient Python library for data manipulation and analysis
DOcplexDOcplex is IBM Decision Optimization CPLEX Modeling for Python, is a library composed of Mathematical Programming Modeling and Constraint Programming Modeling